{"id":16079,"date":"2020-04-05T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-05T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/?p=16079"},"modified":"2020-04-03T18:36:14","modified_gmt":"2020-04-03T17:36:14","slug":"global-chemical-sector-should-prepare-for-an-extended-downturn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/global-chemical-sector-should-prepare-for-an-extended-downturn\/","title":{"rendered":"Global chemical sector should prepare for an extended downturn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Joseph Chang examines the impact that a prolonged downturn might have on the chemical sector<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The global chemical sector should prepare for an extended downturn along with lower-for-longer oil prices, both of which will have big implications for profitability and investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s very possible that Q3 could have negative GDP as well [as Q2], and then the question is how big is the bounce back towards the end of the year?\u201d said Rhian O\u2019Connor, ICIS lead analyst, demand forecasting on an ICIS webinar this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf everything goes back to normal on day one, we\u2019re looking at quite a strong quarter-on-quarter growth through the second half of the year. However, a lot of people have lost their jobs, savings and businesses. We\u2019re not all going to rush out after this crisis and buy a car or fridge,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The analyst also cited an Oxford Economics survey which showed more than a third of participants expecting three or more quarters of negative global GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The manufacturing purchasing managers\u2019 indexes (PMIs) show the damage thus far with the 50 level delineating expansion versus contraction in activity. The ISM US Manufacturing PMI for March fell to 49.1 from 50.1 in February while the IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI sunk to 44.5 in March versus 49.2 in February. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI snapped back to 50.1 in March from a record low of 40.3 in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"610\" height=\"229\" src=\"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM1.jpg 610w, https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM1-300x113.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Extended downturn, compressed spreads<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOur view is that demand for this year, and possibly going into 2021 will not return to pre-crisis levels,\u201d said O\u2019Connor. \u201cWe are going to see a more extended downturn than we were expecting, and then a slower recovery than many are forecasting.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Crude oil prices will also likely be &#8216;lower for longer&#8217; even if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia or if Saudi Arabia agrees to curtail production, she noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For petrochemicals, the spread over oil prices should also be squeezed in a global recession with lower volumes, O\u2019Conner said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barbara Ortner, head of market reporting at ICIS, cited major drops for European ethylene, propylene, and benzene contract prices on 31 March. For Europe benzene, the April contract plunged a stunning 70% from March, settling at a record low of \u20ac171\/tonne. Ethylene April contracts fell by a record \u20ac200\/tonne, to \u20ac720\/tonne, while propylene dropped by \u20ac175\/tonne, to \u20ac650\/tonne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"388\" height=\"255\" src=\"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16081\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM2.jpg 388w, https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM2-300x197.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM2-310x205.jpg 310w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 388px) 100vw, 388px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>China bounces but outlook challenging<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While China\u2019s manufacturing economy is getting back on track and local demand is improving, it will encounter extremely difficult export conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Jim Sheehan, US chemicals equity analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, chemical company managements are seeing a re-acceleration of demand in China with all their facilities getting back to normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCompanies with exposure to automotive and industrial customers are starting to run at full employment capacity but not necessarily at full operating rates,\u201d he said. \u201cThese facilities are just running to meet demand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWith demand rebounding in China, that may sound like a positive thing but the outlook for Q2 is that we\u2019re going to have a major economic contraction and China may not be exporting into very healthy markets. So it remains to be seen what level of activity we normalise at in China,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil forecasts slashed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, analysts are taking down crude oil price forecasts for 2020 and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe lowered our already-bearish oil priced deck further as coronavirus containment cuts into global oil demand, while the balance is getting longer on the supply side due to the OPEC+ schism,\u201d said Ed Morse, global head of commodities at Citi, on a 31 March conference call hosted by the NABE (National Association for Business Economics). \u201cWe now see Brent averaging $30\/bbl this year and $17\/bbl in Q2.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his base-case scenario, Morse sees Brent recovering to about $42\/bbl by Q4 2021, still far below the $60+\/bbl level before the crude oil crash in late February to March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rapid shuttering of business activity in Europe and North America, even as China is recovering, should lead to a hit to demand on the order of 16m bbl\/day or more in Q2 and an overall decline of 8.7m bbl\/day in 2020 in Citi\u2019s base case, said Morse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his bear case, crude oil demand falls by around 20m bbl\/day in Q2, and 10.6m bbl\/day for all of 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Global PE margins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dramatic drop in crude oil prices has turned everything on its head &#8211; the US petrochemical cost advantage in particular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe ethane advantage US producers had is gone. Lower oil means lower naphtha and lower European production costs, so the once advantaged US is not advantaged anymore,\u201d said O\u2019Connor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This presents a problem for US polyethylene (PE) producers in particular who have ramped up capacity with worldscale cracker projects for the export market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt all depends on what the price of crude oil is long term,\u201d said Sheehan. \u201cCrude oil would have to get back above $50\/bbl for some of these large projects to make sense economically and I\u2019m not optimistic about a return to $50 anytime soon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOn capacity additions in the US, a lot of them are being slowed down or postponed\u2026 We\u2019re seeing this across the board &#8211; not just in the ethylene chain \u2026 Many companies are announcing that they\u2019re reviewing and assessing their capital spending plans for 2020 and if the crisis were to continue in 2021, we would probably see the same thing next year,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"224\" src=\"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16082\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM3.jpg 354w, https:\/\/www.engineernewsnetwork.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/GM3-300x190.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the meantime, with the plunge in oil and naphtha feedstock prices, integrated PE production in Europe is seeing renewed profitability, completely flipping the US advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">European spot high density PE (HDPE) margins using naphtha feedstock have rocketed to $1,069\/tonne as of 27 March, according to ICIS Petrochemical Analytics. That compares to $574\/tonne for US HDPE using ethane feed. Asia HDPE margins using naphtha were $565\/tonne, running neck and neck with the US now after being negative through much of November and December 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Margins unsustainable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, these robust margins are not sustainable in the face of global recession combined with overcapacity. Expect all these margins to come down as PE as well as co-product propylene and butadiene prices decline further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cChina is still building (ethylene and derivatives capacity) as well, and that\u2019s not slowing because it\u2019s not for economic but self-sufficiency reasons &#8211; to untangle their supply from the rest of the world,\u201d said O\u2019Connor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAnd in a world where we have structurally lower global demand, at least for one-two years, we\u2019re going to see oversupply and that\u2019s going to impact cracker decisions everywhere,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For equity prices, sectors with greater consumer staples exposure are outperforming. Packaging stocks have held up much better than chemicals stocks. Chemicals feed into a wider range of applications, including automotive, construction and consumer durables which have been hardest hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US chemical stocks have taken a beating, more than discounting the negative market fundamentals, Sheehan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere\u2019s still a lot of uncertainty about the depth and severity of the recession and the duration of it. But from what we know and can glean from talking to management teams, I would say the fundamentals are definitely discounted in the stocks,\u201d the SunTrust analyst pointed out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe problem is that the volatility in the equity markets is so severe that the stocks aren\u2019t really trading on the fundamentals right now. They\u2019re trading on a variety of things, including emotion and fear, and there\u2019s a lot of forced selling going on,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Liquidity and balance sheet concerns are also driving equity prices, and companies will seek to mitigate the impact by cutting back on capex and share buybacks, the analyst noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMost companies in our space can manage through the crisis but that said, we just don\u2019t know how long the crisis is going to last,\u201d said Sheehan.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Joseph Chang is Global Editor, ICIS Chemical Business.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joseph Chang examines the impact that a prolonged downturn might have on the chemical sector The global chemical sector should prepare for an extended downturn along with lower-for-longer oil prices, both of which will have big implications for profitability and investments. \u201cIt\u2019s very possible that Q3 could have negative GDP as well [as Q2], and &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","","category-process"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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