China to dominate global ethylene capacity additions by 2030

China is set to drive global ethylene capacity additions, occupying a share of 35% by 2030, as both demand and supply of ethylene are expected to grow in the country, according to GlobalData, the data and analytics company.  

GlobalData’s latest report Ethylene Market Analysis and Forecast by Products, Capacity Additions, Top Countries and Active and Upcoming Projects to 2030, shows that the total ethylene capacity of under-construction and pre-construction projects in China is expected to be around 28.20 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030.

Nivedita Roy, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “This high-capacity addition of ethylene in China is attributed to its high population and economic growth. Key ethylene capacity addition is expected to be from Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Ltd.”

Ethylene derivatives are extensively utilized in various industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. The expansion of these sectors is expected to increase the ethylene demand in China from 31.75mtpa in 2023 to 38.49mtpa in 2030.

To meet the growing demand for ethylene, China is planning to expand its production capacity. As a result, the ethylene supply in the country is projected to rise from 29.78mtpa in 2023 to 42.88mtpa in 2030.

In China, the major capacity addition is from Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical Quanzhou Ethylene Plant 2, with a capacity of 2.40mtpa. It is expected to commence production of ethylene in 2028.

SABIC Fujian Petrochemical Zhangzhou Ethylene Plant and Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Panjin Ethylene Plant follow next with capacities of 1.80mtpa and 1.65mtpa, respectively. Both plants are expected to become operational by 2028.