Mexico solar PV capacity to reach 37.8GW by 2035

Mexico’s power and energy sector is undergoing a period of structural realignment under President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, shaped by rising electricity demand, renewed regulatory reforms, and a stronger emphasis on energy sovereignty. The updated policy framework reinforces the role of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) as the core market participant while enabling selective private investment to expand generation capacity and modernize the grid. Within this framework, solar power has emerged as the central focus of new clean capacity additions. Against this backdrop, the country’s  solar PV capacity is projected to rise to 37.8GW by 2035, up from around 12.4GW in 2024, according to GlobalData. 

GlobalData’s report, Mexico Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035,shows that the country’s solar PV capacity is expected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 10.7% during 2024–35. This expansion is supported by Mexico’s strong solar resource base, continued development of utility scale projects, and the rapid growth of distributed generation, alongside national planning frameworks that prioritize long term capacity additions to meet rising electricity demand from industry, manufacturing, and urban centers.

Wind power is also projected to contribute materially to clean energy growth over the forecast period. Onshore wind capacity is forecast to increase from around 7.8GW in 2024 to about 16.5GW by 2035, driven by ongoing development in high resource regions such as Oaxaca and Tamaulipas and supported by mixed investment models involving CFE and private developers. Together, solar and wind are expected to account for the majority of clean capacity additions, reshaping Mexico’s generation mix through 2035.

Mohammed Ziauddin, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Mexico’s clean energy expansion is being shaped by long term planning under the National Electricity Sector Strategy 2024–2030 and PLADESE 2025–2039, alongside the March 2025 reform of the Electricity Sector Law. These measures strengthen system planning for integrating higher levels of variable generation and reinforce investment incentives through stricter eligibility criteria under the Clean Energy Certificates framework, favoring new clean energy capacity.”

Natural gas continues to play a central role in Mexico’s power system. Gas fired generation supports supply security, operational flexibility, and industrial growth, particularly as electricity demand increases due to nearshoring, manufacturing expansion, and digital infrastructure development. Gas capacity is projected to rise from 52.7GW in 2024 to 64GW by 2035. Ongoing investment in combined cycle gas plants, pipeline infrastructure, LNG terminals, and storage facilities reflects the government’s strategy to maintain reliability and affordability while solar and wind capacity scale up. Gas remains the primary balancing fuel through 2035, supported by Mexico’s close integration with regional gas markets.

Zia concludes: “Mexico’s power sector is developing along a dual-track pathway, with solar power emerging as the dominant source of new clean capacity while gas-based generation continues to support system reliability. This approach supports energy security and positions the country for sustained growth in low-carbon electricity through 2035.”