Tariff-related disruptions to outweigh other oil and gas themes

US tariffs and energy security are expected to remain the focal points for oil and gas trade in 2025. Tariff-induced trade tensions might exert downward pressure on the US and global economy in the near term, potentially affecting the energy demand. It is therefore important for the industry to assess the impact of macroeconomic themes of tariffs, along with geopolitics, and supply chain while charting out its growth plans, says GlobalData, the data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s thematic report, Top 20 Oil & Gas Themes – 2025, identifies the top 20 themes that will impact the oil and gas industry in 2025. Besides macro themes, the ones enabling the transition towards clean energy, such as renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and electric vehicles (EV) are expected to have a potential impact on oil and gas operations in 2025 and beyond.

Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The US government initially imposed hefty import tariffs on most countries in line with their respective trade deficits, which were later normalized at 10% for a period of 90 days. As a result, the global economic forecast is clouded by the frequent changes in the US tariffs and the prospect of retaliatory rate increases from affected trading partners, especially China.”

The industry has largely recovered from the geopolitical developments since 2022 that had vastly impacted global supply chains. While the global oil demand is anticipated to grow in 2025, fueled by consistent economic expansion in Asia, the stability of supply hinges on geopolitical risks and the production strategies of OPEC+ nations.

Puranik adds: “A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, along with incremental increases in OPEC+ output post-April 2025, could ensure adequate market supply, even in the face of stringent US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.”

Traditional oil and gas themes, namely LNG, shale, and integrated refineries will continue to enable companies to remain competitive in the energy market. The report also features disruptive tech themes, such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, cloud computing, cybersecurity, the Internet of Things (IoT), and robotics.

Puranik concludes: “GlobalData research shows that companies who invest in the right themes become success stories; those who miss the big themes ultimately fail. Given that so many themes are disruptive, it is very easy to be blindsided by industry outsiders invading the sector. In this scenario it is important to understand the biggest themes in the industry and the how they could help companies thrive in the rapidly changing energy dynamics.”