France faces major resilience test as nuclear output rises and renewables scale up

France is solidifying its reliance on nuclear power generation and accelerating energy storage deployment to bolster grid stability, while scaling up interconnections with neighbours. As variable renewables scale, the true resilience test that the country faces is whether storage, flexibility, and backup options are ready, and whether markets and regulation reward capacity that can respond instantly, according to GlobalData.

GlobalData’s latest report, France Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035, shows that nuclear power capacity is expected to remain in the range of 61-63GW during 2025-35, with incremental growth driven by reactor upgrades and life extensions. Renewables, particularly solar PV and wind, are set to nearly double in capacity by 2035, but variability in their output heightens the need for flexible resources.

Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “France should strengthen market mechanisms so that flexibility and dispatchability are properly rewarded through capacity payments, ancillary services, and stable contracts for storage and backup power. The country also needs to streamline permitting for storage, maintain pumped hydro infrastructure, speed up battery deployment, and establish clear regulatory pathways and investment support for small modular reactors (SMRs).”

Large hydropower and pumped storage are emerging as critical flexibility enablers, helping smooth daily and seasonal fluctuations from renewables. Battery storage systems are growing in importance for short-duration shifts (hours to sub-hour response), including frequency regulation and evening peaks. Gas-fired thermal plants, though declining in overall generation share, are still important as fast-ramp backup, particularly when nuclear or hydro assets undergo maintenance or during extended low renewable periods.

France has committed to phasing out coal-fired power by 2027, with several existing coal plants already winding down or being converted. At the same time, interconnection enhancements are underway: cross-border links such as IFA-2 and Savoie-Piémont are being upgraded or built, and projects like the Celtic Interconnector aim to increase export-import capacities through high-voltage, long-distance lines. These interconnections will help absorb renewable variability, enable trading of surplus clean energy, and reduce reliance on domestic backup capacity.

Saibasan adds: “SMRs are gaining recognition as potential capacity bridges beyond the 2035 horizon. With lower capital intensity, modular deployment, and enhanced safety features, they may provide additional firm low-carbon capacity in regions where large-scale nuclear projects face siting, permitting, or cost constraints.”

Key challenges include the cost of maintaining aging nuclear assets; lengthy regulatory and licensing processes for new nuclear or SMR projects; securing materials and robust supply chains; and ensuring storage and battery scale-ups are matched by market rules and stable revenue streams. Environmental permitting, social acceptance, grid interconnection, and coal-exit timelines also pose significant risks.

Saibasan concludes: “If the enablers are well-implemented, France can sustain reliable baseload power through nuclear even as renewables surge, with storage and interconnections buffering variability and keeping carbon emissions low, energy security high, and fossil fuel dependency diminishing. Without them, rapid renewable expansion risks supply volatility, increased reliance on gas during stress periods, and higher system costs for consumers.”