Kazakhstan likely to miss revised 2030 renewables target

Kazakhstan achieved its short-term target of generating 3% of its electricity from renewables in 2020. In 2021, the country revised the renewables target for 2030 to 15% from the previous 10%. However, as per the current trend, the country will be able to achieve only 10.3% of electricity generation through renewables due to lack of flexible generation, states GlobalData, the data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, Kazakhstan Power Market Size, Trends, Regulations, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2023-2035, notes that the country’s power sector is characterised by its high dependence on thermal power, which accounted for 80.1% of installed capacity and 86.6% of the annual generation in 2022. Coal power alone accounted for 59.5% of the total cumulative installed capacity and 64.5% of the total annual generation. Coal-based thermal power is mainly driven by substantial coal reserves and its cheap availability. The energy intensity of the country is also high, mainly due to the presence of outdated Soviet-era technology in the generation and transmission sectors.

Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Kazakhstan lacks flexible generating capacity and relies on parallel operation with the Russian power system. The current geopolitical crisis creates a major risk for the country to cover imbalances and maintain frequency stability. The shortage of flexible capacity is likely to become an increasing challenge as more intermittent renewable power is added to the capacity mix.”

Within renewables, solar PV and wind power have been the core focus areas in Kazakhstan. There is huge untapped potential for renewables, which has been overlooked due to the cheap availability of thermal power. Between 2023-2035, 3.1GW of solar PV capacity is expected to be added, whereas onshore wind capacity additions are expected to be 2.9GW. The country expects to achieve 50% renewable power generation by 2050.

Saibasan concludes: “Kazakhstan should look to upgrade its national grid to make it more sustainable, independent, and adaptable to intermittent renewable production. The Kazakh government should look to exploit the untapped wind and solar PV potential in the country. Auctions are key to renewable power development; the country should look to make the scheme more attractive to bring in foreign investments and bring in advanced technology to achieve optimal efficiency from renewable power plants.”