Analysis highlights the scale of the challenge to rapidly increase global nuclear energy

Global aspirations to significantly increase global nuclear energy will require greatly accelerating the expansion of the nuclear workforce, supply chains and availability of finance. That is one of the findings of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) report, Nuclear Energy Outlook: Global Installed Capacity to 2050 and Beyond, a which assesses the current status and future trajectory of nuclear energy worldwide. 

This new expert analysis comes at a pivotal moment for the nuclear sector following decades of inaction in nuclear new build in most OECD countries. Today, a growing number of governments in both OECD countries and the Global South are repositioning nuclear energy as a core component of energy security, environmental goals and industrial competitiveness.  

This analysis is built around four scenarios that describe how global installed nuclear capacity could evolve to 2050 and beyond, taking into account refurbishments and long-term operations of the existing nuclear reactor fleet, as well as new builds of gigawatt-scale and small modular reactors (SMRs): 

• Low Scenario: global installed nuclear capacity reaches only 34 GWe by 2050, as retirements in OECD countries offset new projects and recent momentum fails to translate into sustained deployment.  
• Current Trends Scenario: global capacity reaches 619GWe, driven largely by non-OECD planned and proposed projects.  
• Ambitious Scenario: global capacity reaches 883GWe, with a larger contribution from new build and SMRs.  
• Transformative Scenario: global capacity reaches about 1,324GWe by 2050, more than tripling global capacity. This scenario is driven by long-term national capacity goals, including the United States’ goal to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050 and India’s target of 100GWe by 2047, combined with successful long-term operation (LTO), accelerated large-scale new build and significant SMR deployment.  

As detailed in the report, tripling installed nuclear capacity by 2050 is achieved only in a Transformative Scenario which, in OECD countries, will require major changes in government policies, as well as project execution, industrial capability and financing.  

Shifting geography of nuclear development 

Beyond overall capacity levels, the report highlights a shift in where nuclear development is taking place. While OECD countries currently account for around 78% of current global nuclear capacity, non-OECD countries are driving most near-term expansion: of the 70 GWe under construction, around 80% is in non-OECD countries, led by the People’s Republic of China (China) with more than 33 GWe.  

The report also underscores the strategic importance of technology choices and vendor competition. China and Russia currently hold a strong position in the international nuclear market, while OECD-based vendors maintain a significant but less developed project pipeline. 

The critical role of existing reactors 

Long-term operation (LTO) of the existing nuclear fleet remains a key factor in meeting global nuclear capacity targets. Many reactors in OECD countries will reach the end of their initial licences before 2040. Extending operations to 60 years and, increasingly, 80 years could preserve reliable low-carbon capacity, support energy security and avoid the need to replace large volumes of firm generation at short notice. 

However, OECD countries are still at serious risk of losing vital nuclear facilities. The report estimates that plants representing more than 50GWe of OECD nuclear capacity have not yet secured licences to operate to 2040.  Renewing the licences of plants capable of continued operations is essential. 

Addressing supply chain, workforce and financing challenges    

Delivering higher deployment scenarios will depend on overcoming challenges related to supply chain and workforce capacity. In many OECD countries, limited new build over the past 25 years have weakened industrial capabilities and project delivery experience. Meeting this challenge will require close co-operation among like-minded countries, stronger industrial partnerships and a shift from project-by-project approaches to programme-based deployment. 

Financing will also be a decisive factor. Recent global capital expenditure on new nuclear has averaged around USD 30 billion per year, mainly driven by China and Russia. To meet higher deployment scenarios, this will need to rise sharply. For OECD countries, annual capital requirements would need to increase from about USD 12 billion per year over the last decade to an average of USD 68 billion in the Ambitious Scenario and USD 143 billion in the Transformative Scenario. During the 2030s, the Transformative Scenario could see OECD capital requirements approach USD 200 billion per year.  

Given fiscal pressures on public budgets, mobilising private capital will be essential. This will require bankable project structures, clear risk allocation, credible revenue models and government-backed mechanisms that reduce construction, market and political risks. 

Nuclear Energy Outlook: Global Installed Capacity to 2050 and Beyond highlights that closing the gap between ambition and delivery will require concerted efforts by governments, industry and financial institutions.