Removal of the Netherlands’ coal power generation cap due to Russia-Ukraine war a setback for country’s renewable transition

The Netherlands’ decision to restructure its energy plans amid the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical crisis, combined with the scrapping of its nuclear phase-out plans in 2021, is a setback for the country’s renewable power aspirations, says GlobalData, the data and analytics company.

The Dutch government has lifted a cap on coal-based power generation, which was set at 35% in 2021 according to GlobalData’s Netherlands Power Market Size, 2022-2035 report. The report details the plans, which saw the Netherlands phasing out coal power plants and certain oil-fired plants by 2030. The cap represented a significant drop in dependence on gas-fired power plants for thermal power generation, so its removal will put real pressure on climate targets. 

Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Removing this cap on coal-based power generation could help the Netherlands save billions of cubic meters of gas use yearly, however, it is a setback for its renewable transition. The phase out process was planned to be executed in two steps, with two low-efficiency plants to be closed by 2025, and three new plants to be closed by 2030. This would have decreased the share of thermal power in the Netherland’s total generation from 64.5% in 2021 to 17.9% by 2035.

As well as stopping plans to phase out coal, the Dutch government has also called off a planned nuclear power phase out alongside announcing two new nuclear power plants. Around EUR500 million has been allocated to new nuclear power projects, to be sanctioned in three parts: Eur50 million ($56 million) in 2023, Eur200 million in 2024 and Eur250 million in 2025.

Saibasan continues: “After peaking in 2022, nuclear power generation is expected to decline gradually, however which still have a role to play in the generation mix. The share of nuclear power in total annual generation will only decrease from 3% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2030 attesting to the fact that Netherlands is not yet ready to totally phase out nuclear power as intended earlier.”