Cybersecurity: threat predictions for 2025

From advanced disinformation services to stolen digital identities, smart home vulnerabilities, and AI-driven social engineering — these are the key topics currently discussed in dark web forums

Every December, experts at NordVPN attempt to predict the cybersecurity risks for the upcoming year. This year, they partnered with NordStellar analytics, whose researchers analysed the largest dark web forums to identify the most discussed and emerging topics.

“Although last year’s predictions remain relevant, the popularity of various hacking courses and DIY cybercrime kits has increased noticeably. Leaked personal media and customer data continue to circulate widely within these forums,” says Adrianus Warmenhoven, a cybersecurity expert at NordVPN.

“This year, we’ve delved deeper, exploring beyond the most commented topics to identify five new threats and vulnerabilities likely to rise in 2025,” adds Warmenhoven.

Persistent threats: The scope of account takeovers will expand

The dark web’s most discussed threads, with more than 135,000 comments, focus on “combo lists” — databases filled with combinations of usernames, passwords, and other personal data from various breaches. A closely followed topic, with nearly 26,000 comments, focuses directly on account takeovers that exploit this metadata for unauthorised access.

Due to the common practice of password reuse across multiple sites, possession of login information not only enables hackers to commit fraud and misuse accounts for malicious purposes like conducting fraudulent transactions but also greatly increases the risk of identity theft.

Warmenhoven highlights the danger, pointing out that as long as password reuse continues, these attacks will remain highly effective and popular among cybercriminals. He even predicts an increase in these activities in 2025 as new data breaches continue to supply criminals with fresh credentials.

Emerging threats: smart home security exploits

Another highly commented thread on the dark web forum, attracting nearly 21,000 comments, focuses on security vulnerabilities in various smart home systems and applications, including precise instructions on how to exploit them.

The 2024 IoT Security Landscape Report analysed approximately 50 million IoT devices, uncovering over 9.1 billion security events globally. On average, home networks experience more than 10 attacks daily against connected devices. This number is only expected to grow in 2025.

“Hackers are increasingly targeting a broad range of smart home devices, from security systems to everyday appliances like smart refrigerators and vacuums. While some devices may act as gateways for broader network attacks, others, like home CCTV systems, can be directly hacked, potentially exposing your private activities,” says Warmenhoven.

Identity theft will remain hackers’ priority due to its high profitability

Fraud discussions rank among the top 10 most commented threads on the dark web, with users sharing tips, tools, and strategies for committing fraud successfully. Credit card and insurance frauds are frequently discussed, but identity theft remains the primary focus for hackers due to its high profitability.

As hackers continue to exploit personal data to infiltrate bank accounts, secure credit cards, and commit tax fraud, identity theft techniques are expected to become increasingly sophisticated.

“Identity theft is evolving, with new forms expected to emerge next year,” says Warmenhoven. “One of them, synthetic identity fraud, which merges real and fake data, often incorporates deepfake technologies to increase its effectiveness. Another developing method is reverse identity theft, where individuals use someone else’s identity not for financial gain but to live as them in daily life — securing jobs, accessing medical care, or avoiding legal consequences. These strategies focus on long-term impersonation over immediate financial benefits”.

Imminent rise of new dark strategy – disinformation as a service

According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, AI-generated misinformation is ranked as the second-most severe global risk (53%) over the next two years, with extreme weather taking the top spot and cyberattacks ranked fifth.

The dark web is filled with tactics designed to spread disinformation, including the use of thousands of fake social media accounts and numerous spam emails that disseminate propaganda. Also, disinformation bot farms are being developed to distribute false information on a large scale.

“Reflecting on current trends in the dark web, we anticipate that disinformation as a service will emerge as a significant threat next year,” warns Warmenhoven. “This solution, offered by cybercriminals, profits from creating and spreading false information. This highly customisable and adaptive service enables precise targeting of demographic profiles and manipulation of social media algorithms to maximise impact.”

AI-driven social engineering will become more sophisticated

AI-driven social engineering is expected to become more sophisticated. Although this topic is not widely discussed, forums are filled with detailed tips, tutorials, and real-world examples of how to benefit from this technique. A significant emerging trend is the use of AI to detect vulnerabilities, increasing the complexity of tools designed to manipulate human behaviour for information extraction and crafting effective phishing emails.

Also, because of AI-based social engineering, employees make more mistakes and companies are less secure, which is proven by Business Digital Index.

“We are currently witnessing the emergence of a threat known as ‘company manipulation and exploitation,’ where bad actors trick company representatives into issuing refunds or replacements for nearly any reason. These forums provide precise methods for researching companies to effectively execute these schemes, targeting major corporations like Amazon, ASOS, and Walmart,” explains Warmenhoven.