China to dominate global ethylene capacity additions by 2030

China is set to significantly expand ethylene production capacity as it seeks to reduce its high import dependence and meet surging domestic demand from its vast manufacturing, packaging, and automotive sectors. Driven by a strong capacity growth in the coming years, the country is expected to dominate global ethylene capacity additions by 2030, according to GlobalData.

GlobalData’s latest report, Global Ethylene Market: Key Trends, Product Analysis and Upcoming Projects to 2030, says that China is likely to account for more than half of the expected ethylene capacity additions worldwide by 2030. 

Nivedita Roy, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “China is rapidly transitioning to a self-sufficient, top-tier producer of ethylene. A primary driver of the country’s growing ethylene capacity expansion is its rapidly growing manufacturing, packaging, automotive, and construction sectors, which is creating huge demand for ethylene derivatives, such as polyethylene (PE).”

China also utilises a diverse mix of feedstocks, with a growing reliance on coal-based methanol-to-olefins (MTO) processes. This strategy provides an alternative to traditional oil-based production pathways, enabling competitiveness.

Furthermore, China’s ethylene industry is evolving to support emerging high-value downstream applications, including photovoltaic-grade ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and advanced membranes for electric vehicle batteries. These technological advancements are set to unlock new market segments and further solidify China’s leadership in innovative ethylene derivatives.

The highest capacity addition in China is expected to come from the announced project Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Longkou Ethylene Plant 3. Located in the Shandong province, this project is expected to commence operations in 2030. The SABIC Fujian Petrochemical Zhangzhou Ethylene Plant and the Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Panjin Ethylene Plant represent the next two major capacity additions in the country. They are both anticipated to come online this year.

Roy concludes: “Rapid ethylene capacity growth in China is underpinned by substantial investments in integrated refinery and petrochemical projects. Ambitious projects from companies such as Shandong Yulong Petrochemical further solidify China’s petrochemical leadership, enabling the nation to dominate the global ethylene landscape.”